Conformal prediction (CP) and its extension, conformal risk control (CRC), are established frameworks for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning through formal guarantees. However, recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) have been driven by unsupervised generative models, such as large language models (LLMs) and image generators, which are not directly compatible with CP or CRC. In this work we introduce conformal generation (Conf-Gen), a general framework adapting CRC to generative tasks while relaxing its theoretical assumptions. Conf-Gen unifies and generalizes previous attempts to apply CP to LLMs, and extends conformal methodology to entirely new domains. We demonstrate the flexibility of Conf-Gen through some novel applications, including obtaining conformal guarantees on: image generators producing non-memorized images, conversational AI systems having asked enough clarifying questions, and the output of AI agents being correct.

Generative models, including diffusion models, are increasingly used as foundation models and adapted through sequential fine-tuning, making continual learning an essential problem setting. However, continual learning in such generative models remains poorly understood: after a task change, what aspects of the learned distribution are most easily lost, and what replay samples should be prioritized? We address these questions through the modern Hopfield energy. Recent links between modern Hopfield networks (MHNs) and diffusion models allow analyses in MHNs to be transferred to diffusion models. We introduce intrinsic forgetting as an increase in Hopfield energy after the task change. In tractable settings in an MHN, we prove that high-energy, outlier-like samples undergo a larger energy increase than cluster-like samples, implying that samples located in sharp, isolated basins are more forgettable. We further analyze memory replay and show that replay is particularly effective for high-energy samples, enabling an energy-based selection of replay samples. We validate these predictions in experiments on MHNs and two diffusion models under continual-learning settings: Stable Diffusion and a pixel-space DDPM. In these diffusion models, Hopfield energy tracks reconstruction-based forgetting, and replay experiments reveal energy-dependent mitigation of forgetting that is consistent with the MHN analysis.

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in finite discounted MDPs, where a generative model of the MDP is assumed to be available. We consider a family or risk measures called the optimized certainty equivalent (OCE), which includes important risk measures such as entropic risk, CVaR, and mean-variance. Our focus is on the sample complexities of learning the optimal state-action value function (value learning) and an optimal policy (policy learning) under recursive OCE. We provide an exact characterization of utility functions $u$ for which the corresponding OCE defines an objective that is PAC-learnable. We analyze a simple model-based approach and derive PAC sample complexity bounds. We establish that whenever $u$ does not have full domain $\text{dom}(u)\neq \mathbb{R}$, the corresponding problem is not PAC-learnable. Finally, we establish corresponding lower bounds for both value and policy learning, demonstrating tightness in the size $SA$ of state-action space, and for a more restricted class of utilities, we derive lower bounds that makes the dependence on the effective horizon $\frac{1}{1-γ}$ explicit. Specifically, for $\text{CVaR}_τ$ we show that the correct dependence on $τ$ is $\frac{1}{τ^2}$, thus improving by a factor of $\frac{1}τ$ over state-of-the-art although our bound has a suboptimal dependence on $\frac{1}{1-γ}$.

Despite the remarkable empirical success of generative models, the available theory on their statistical accuracy in scientific computing remains largely pessimistic. This paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding the regularity of transport maps and the generalization properties of one-step Wasserstein-guided generative models for PDE-induced probability measures. We consider normalized target densities associated with linear elliptic and parabolic equations on bounded domains, as well as diffusion and Fokker--Planck equations on the torus. Under standard structural assumptions, we prove that these target measures satisfy doubling conditions. By combining this fact with regularity theory for optimal transport between doubling measures, we show that the optimal transport map from a uniform source measure to the target measure is Hölder continuous. This regularity yields an approximation-theoretic justification for one-step generative models that learn PDE-induced distributions via a single pushforward map. As a representative instance, we study DeepParticle and derive excess-risk bounds characterizing the discrepancy between the learned map and the population-optimal map. We also establish a robustness estimate under target shift and illustrate the theory with experiments which support the derived rates.

Generative neural networks learn how to produce highly realistic images from a large, but finite number of examples - or do they simply memorise their training set? To settle this question, Kadkhodaie, Guth, Simoncelli and Mallat (ICLR '24) trained diffusion models independently on disjoint subsets of a dataset and showed that they converge to nearly the same density when the number of training images is large enough. This result raises two basic questions: how much data do you need for convergence, and what does convergence capture about learning the data distribution? Here, we address these questions by providing an exact analytical characterisation of the transition from memorisation to generalisation in linear generative models. We find that these models memorise at small load, while convergence emerges continuously when the number of samples is linear in the input dimension. Strikingly, we find that convergence is insensitive to recovery of the principal latent factors of the data, which are recovered in a sharp transition. After extending our approach to data with power-law spectra, we find the same distinction between convergence and latent recovery in our experiments with convolutional denoisers and in the data of Kadkhodaie et al. We thus show that generalisation in generative models decomposes into at least two distinct objectives: matching the bulk of the data distribution and recovering the principal latent factors. These objectives correspond to two different distances between true and learnt data distribution, and only the first one is captured by convergence.

Automated systems built on artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly deployed across high-stakes domains, raising critical concerns about fairness and the perpetuation of demographic disparities that exist in the world. In this context, causal inference provides a principled framework for reasoning about fairness, as it links observed disparities to underlying mechanisms and aligns naturally with human intuition and legal notions of discrimination. Prior work on causal fairness primarily focuses on the standard machine learning setting, where a decision-maker constructs a single predictive mechanism $f_{\widehat Y}$ for an outcome variable $Y$, while inheriting the causal mechanisms of all other covariates from the real world. The generative AI setting, however, is markedly more complex: generative models can sample from arbitrary conditionals over any set of variables, implicitly constructing their own beliefs about all causal mechanisms rather than learning a single predictive function. This fundamental difference requires new developments in causal fairness methodology. We formalize the problem of causal fairness in generative AI and unify it with the standard ML setting under a common theoretical framework. We then derive new causal decomposition results that enable granular quantification of fairness impacts along both (a) different causal pathways and (b) the replacement of real-world mechanisms by the generative model's mechanisms. We establish identification conditions and introduce efficient estimators for causal quantities of interest, and demonstrate the value of our methodology by analyzing race and gender bias in large language models across different datasets.

This paper studies sampling error bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) in the 2-Wasserstein distance. Our contributions are threefold. (i) Under general Lipschitz-type conditions on the score function and for a broad class of variance schedules, including the cosine schedule, we establish sharp upper bounds that are optimal in both the dimension and the number of steps, and recover several sharp error bounds previously obtained in the literature. (ii) We prove that the same Lipschitz-type conditions, which encompass those commonly imposed on the (learned) score, imply a logarithmic Sobolev inequality and hence a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the DDPM. As a consequence, in settings covered by existing work, an optimal Wasserstein bound, up to a logarithmic factor, follows from the recently obtained sharp error bound in the Kullback-Leibler divergence under geometric-type variance schedules. (iii) We show that for general log-concave target distributions, the optimal Wasserstein error bound remains attainable even without a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the target. Our analysis is based on viewing the DDPM sampler as a discretization of the Föllmer process rather than the conventional reverse Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Many decision in clinical science and epidemiology -- estimating probability of technical success for a clinical trial, assessing comparative effectiveness of two therapies, imputing a placebo effect onto natural history data -- rely on combining sources of information about a clinical cohort that comes from different kinds of studies. Specifically we contrast patient-level sources that provide granular pictures of individual disease course (clinical trial, registries, or electronic health records) with aggregate sources such as published clinical trial results and the TFLs (tables figures and listings). One strategy for combining aggregate with patient-level data sources is to bring each into a common format for a unified analysis. If one wants to maintain the analytic flexibility of patient-level data, then a natural solution is to convert the aggregate data information into a simulated patient-level dataset that recapitulate those aggregate statistics. This is an under-determined inverse problem in that there are many such datasets, and it cannot be well specified without further constraints. FRESH(Fusion of Recent Evidence with Subject Histories) provides a well-defined method for solving this problem, and therefore providing maximal analytic flexibility.

Discrete automated processes in industrial and cyber-physical systems often exhibit a repetitive structure in which successive repetitions follow a common trajectory while differing in duration, amplitude, and fine-scale dynamics. Such \emph{approximately periodic} behavior poses a challenge for Gaussian Processes (GP) modeling: strictly periodic models suppress inter-repetition variability, while non-periodic models fail to capture the strong structural regularities required for generation. In this work, we propose a stochastic generative model for approximately periodic time series. The model is based on a GP whose posterior is modulated by a novel kernel. Our approach decouples intra-repetition structure from inter-repetition variability through a two-stage construction which yields a generative distribution with a identical mean function across repetitions, while allowing smooth variation between repetitions. The modeling choices are supported by an implementation in which realistic synthetic trajectories are generated from toy datasets.

One-step generative modeling has emerged as a leading approach to amortize the inference cost of diffusion and flow-matching models. Among distillation-free methods, MeanFlow training is notoriously unstable, with non-decreasing loss and unbounded gradient variance. In this work, we establish a theory that attributes this pathology to a misuse of the conditional velocity field: it plays two distinct statistical roles in the loss, both as an unbiased regression target and as a Monte Carlo control variate inside a Jacobi-vector product, with the original loss assigning the wrong coefficient to the latter. We derive the optimal coefficient in closed form, and show that a family of fixes in concurrent works corresponds to different practical realizations of the same optimum. A controlled sweep of this coefficient on two-dimensional benchmarks and on a latent Diffusion Transformer recovers the predicted bias-variance ordering. The optimal coefficient yields up to a %54 improvement in sample quality on two-dimensional benchmarks and a monotone FID trend at every matched-step DiT checkpoint. Crucially, the same DiT measurement also reveals a quantitative FID-MSE landscape mismatch: although gradient variance is minimized at an interior coefficient value, the coefficient that minimizes FID prefers the direct use of conditional velocity.